P_00013 — Production quantity cannot be selected from total economic cost

One testable operational mismatch: production history and demand information exist, while the planning process cannot compare viable batch sizes using production cost, scrap, demand, and inventory carrying cost together.

Problem ID	Name	Solution IDs	Statement type	Status
P_00013	Production quantity cannot be selected from total economic cost	none	market_hypothesis	draft

kind: problem_catalog
schema_version: 1
problems:
  - id: P_00013
    solutionsIds: []
    priority: 50
    name: 'Production quantity cannot be selected from total economic cost'
    status: draft
    statement_type: market_hypothesis
    applies_to_icp_ids: []
    situation: >-
      A company can run materially different quantities of the same item at a
      work center, per-unit production cost and expected scrap may change with
      the quantity produced, and production beyond current demand remains in
      inventory and incurs carrying cost until it is consumed or sold.
    operational_mismatch: >-
      The company has production history and demand information, but its
      planning process does not combine completed-run quantity, per-unit
      production cost, expected scrap, demand, and inventory carrying cost into
      a usable comparison of viable batch sizes. Planners therefore cannot
      establish from the operating record which production quantity has the
      preferable total economic cost before releasing the run.
    possible_consequences:
      - >-
        A production quantity is selected without a verified comparison of
        production cost, expected scrap, demand coverage, and inventory carrying
        cost across the viable run sizes.
      - >-
        A larger batch can appear efficient on per-unit production cost while
        producing inventory beyond demand and increasing carrying cost or scrap
        exposure.
      - >-
        A smaller batch can limit inventory exposure while foregoing production
        cost reductions available at a larger quantity.
    observable_signals:
      - >-
        The company asks whether it should run a small quantity or tens of
        thousands of the same item.
      - >-
        The incumbent offers learning-curve functionality, but the team says it
        cannot make the function produce the required decision.
      - 'Per-unit production cost changes materially with run quantity.'
      - 'Expected scrap is described as capable of changing the preferred run quantity.'
      - >-
        Planners need to compare candidate run quantities with demand and the
        cost of holding excess finished inventory.
    disconfirming_signals:
      - >-
        For representative items and work centers, the company maintains a
        batch-size comparison that combines run quantity, per-unit production
        cost, expected scrap, demand, and inventory carrying cost.
      - >-
        Planning records show that selected quantities are routinely evaluated
        against that comparison and that realized production cost, scrap,
        inventory held, and demand consumption reconcile within agreed
        tolerances.
      - >-
        The company produces only against firm demand in quantities that create
        no material batch-size choice or inventory carrying-cost exposure.
    confirmation_questions: []
    evidence_requirement: >-
      Completed manufacturing-order history for representative items and work
      centers, including run quantity, material and conversion cost, produced
      quantity, scrap quantity and cost; the demand and finished-inventory
      position available when each quantity was selected; the company's
      inventory carrying-cost method; and the selected quantity's realized
      production, inventory, and demand-consumption result.
    evidence_ids: []
    prohibited_claims:
      - 'That any particular production quantity is optimal before the relevant history, demand, and carrying cost are evaluated.'
      - 'That a larger batch necessarily lowers total economic cost.'
      - 'Any quantified saving, scrap reduction, carrying-cost reduction, or return on investment.'
      - 'That AI or a dashboard can identify an optimal quantity without complete and timely production, demand, and inventory data.'
      - 'That the incumbent lacks learning-curve functionality.'

Scope notes

This record declares no vertical scope. Its situation requires a material batch-size choice, quantity-dependent production economics, demand that may be lower than the run quantity, and inventory carrying-cost exposure. Audience selection must test those conditions rather than infer applicability from an industry label.

The supporting observation was made in a single-site manufacturer producing finished goods and machined parts in variable run quantities. Selection into any other operating context is an unevidenced hypothesis until an audience binding tests the record's situation and observable_signals.

Production-queue scope is deliberately excluded because it was not approved during authoring.

Outstanding

1. evidence_ids is empty. The supporting call remains in 2026-08-01-spray-call-2-production-quantity.md, which is provisional and never a generator input. W9 must create an evidence record before the customer-derived hypothesis can be treated as an externally supported claim.
2. confirmation_questions is empty. W8 remains blocked on the unsettled Q&A and evidence-record location.
3. solutionsIds is empty. The proposed production-quantity analysis is input to create-solutions; no solution ID exists yet.