P_00005 — Project outcomes stop at the channel partner

One testable operational mismatch: the manufacturer records a quote, while the final project decision occurs outside the manufacturer's transaction record and never returns to it.

Problem ID	Name	Solution IDs	Statement type	Status
P_00005	Project outcomes stop at the channel partner	none	market_hypothesis	draft

kind: problem_catalog
schema_version: 1
problems:
  - id: P_00005
    solutionsIds: []
    priority: 45
    name: 'Project outcomes stop at the channel partner'
    status: approved
    statement_type: market_hypothesis
    applies_to_icp_ids: []
    situation: >-
      A manufacturer quotes project work through intermediaries, while the final
      project award and purchase decision occur outside the manufacturer's own
      transaction record.
    operational_mismatch: >-
      The manufacturer's quote record does not receive a verified final outcome
      for the underlying project. Once a quote is sent through the intermediary,
      the record cannot establish whether the project was awarded, who supplied
      it, or whether the quoted price won or lost.
    possible_consequences:
      - 'Win and loss trends cannot be stated reliably by price, product, geography, or segment.'
      - 'True project share remains unknown even when quote activity is available.'
      - 'Completed projects can remain represented as unresolved quotes.'
    observable_signals:
      - 'The company says it does not know whether a distributor won a quoted project.'
      - 'Quote records lack a required final outcome and outcome date.'
      - >-
        Win-rate analysis relies on bookings without accounting for projects won
        by another supplier.
    disconfirming_signals:
      - >-
        Channel partners routinely return project-level award results that are
        attached to the manufacturer's quote records.
      - >-
        Completed project records carry a verified won, lost, cancelled, or
        no-decision outcome and identify how that result was established.
    confirmation_questions: []
    evidence_requirement: >-
      A sample of projects whose final award is independently known, showing
      whether the corresponding manufacturer quote records contain the same
      outcome.
    evidence_ids: []
    prohibited_claims:
      - 'Any claimed win rate, price elasticity, or market share before outcomes are verified.'
      - 'That an unbooked quote was necessarily lost.'
      - 'That a distributor withheld an outcome intentionally.'