P_00004 — Channel quotes are not reconciled to the underlying project

One testable operational mismatch: quote records identify separate channel interactions, while commercial demand exists at the level of the underlying project.

Problem ID	Name	Solution IDs	Statement type	Status
P_00004	Channel quotes are not reconciled to the underlying project	S_00004	market_hypothesis	draft

kind: problem_catalog
schema_version: 1
problems:
  - id: P_00004
    solutionsIds:
      - S_00004
    priority: 45
    name: 'Channel quotes are not reconciled to the underlying project'
    status: approved
    statement_type: market_hypothesis
    applies_to_icp_ids: []
    situation: >-
      A company sells project-based work through intermediaries, and more than
      one intermediary may request a manufacturer quote for the same end
      project.
    operational_mismatch: >-
      Each intermediary quote request is recorded as a separate opportunity
      without a shared identity for the underlying project. Several commercial
      interactions therefore represent one demand event, while pipeline
      reporting treats them as independent demand.
    possible_consequences:
      - 'Summing quote values overstates the value of unique projects being pursued.'
      - 'The company cannot state how many distinct projects its quote volume represents.'
    observable_signals:
      - 'Several quotes contain the same product, weight, destination, or project details.'
      - 'The company reports receiving several distributor quotes for one project.'
      - 'Opportunity reporting counts quote records rather than distinct end projects.'
    disconfirming_signals:
      - >-
        Every channel quote carries a required end-project identifier, and all
        requests for that project are grouped before pipeline totals are
        produced.
      - >-
        A sampled reconciliation of channel quotes to end projects finds no
        unresolved many-to-one relationships.
    confirmation_questions: []
    evidence_requirement: >-
      A sample containing multiple distributor quotes for the same completed or
      active project, together with the pipeline total before and after those
      records are reconciled.
    evidence_ids: []
    prohibited_claims:
      - 'Any quantified pipeline inflation without a completed reconciliation.'
      - 'That distributors intentionally submit duplicate opportunities.'
      - 'That deduplicating quotes establishes win rate or market share.'

Scope notes

This record declares no vertical scope. Applicability is decided by the audience bindings that reference it, per W10. Its situation requires distribution-mediated project bidding in which several intermediaries may request quotes for the same end project.

The supporting observation was made in an M1_V1 account selling through distributors. Selection into any other vertical or sales motion is an unevidenced hypothesis.

This mismatch is distinct from P_00005. A company can reconcile several channel quotes to one project and still lack the final award outcome, or it can receive outcome data while continuing to count each quote as separate demand.

Outstanding

1. priority is null. The call supplies no canonical ordering, and no value was provided during review. S4 step 2 fails until a value from 0 to 100 is approved.
2. evidence_ids is empty. The supporting observation remains in 2026-07-24-pipe-call-1-quoting-and-margin.md, which is provisional. S4 step 7 fails until W9 can run.
3. confirmation_questions is empty. W8 remains blocked on the unsettled Q&A and evidence location.
4. applies_to_icp_ids is empty. No ICP record currently exists.